HAM-AKL business case is out!!!

[jarbury]

It's in the article Riggles:

They predict $15.5 million over 15 years in economic benefits including reduced road congestion from a single daily return service, against an operating loss of $6.6 million.

[Riggles]

I am highly sceptical of these claims.

The first major issue is that they seems to assume a 75% uptake on the route. HoweverJust thinking about it yourself, if you are a business man who travels to auckland each day (most likely in a company car) you probably work varrying hours some days long other days short. In which case the train service would be completely usless. I would think a far more realistic uptake rate would be about 1%

[jarbury]

Why do you dislike trains so much Riggles?

[Riggles]

Why do you dislike trains so much Riggles?

No my issue is that the benifits they claim for the single car service are total crap. A double or three run service would be great but who in their right mind would risk being stuck in Auckland for a night when there meeting runs late or the printer craps out just to catch a once per day train. Or the other way not going to work because you slept in 5mins too late.

[ivc]

Why do you dislike trains so much Riggles?

That's drawing a bit of a long bow.

[jarbury]

No my issue is that the benifits they claim for the single car service are total crap. A double or three run service would be great but who in their right mind would risk being stuck in Auckland for a night when there meeting runs late or the printer craps out just to catch a once per day train. Or the other way not going to work because you slept in 5mins too late.

Fair enough, yes I think they should run 3 trains a day each way or something like that.

[Riggles]

I really wonder some times when people make these reports. They need to take a steep back and think if what they are saying makes any sense.

Another similar thing is upgradeing the northern busway to rail once it reaches capacity. Like how in the world do you propose to shut down the northern busway that has 1 bus every 2mins so that you can spend two years of construction on the thing only to increase capacity but reduce frequency.

The worst thing that could possibly happen here would be to start a single train service which is bound to fail and due to which a good Hamilton to Auckland service will not be investigated for another 20 years.

[matthew25187]

A double or three run service would be great but who in their right mind would risk being stuck in Auckland for a night when there meeting runs late or the printer craps out just to catch a once per day train. Or the other way not going to work because you slept in 5mins too late.

None of these issues apparently matter to the hundreds of people who commute regularly/every day from Palmerston North to Wellington on the Capital Connection. It is the longest successful commuter train service in the country with only one return service daily.

[matthew25187]

Another similar thing is upgradeing the northern busway to rail once it reaches capacity. Like how in the world do you propose to shut down the northern busway that has 1 bus every 2mins so that you can spend two years of construction on the thing only to increase capacity but reduce frequency.

One of the reasons there is such a high frequency of bus services on this route must be because that is the only effective way to increase capacity. You can't exactly daisy-chain buses together to add seats like you can with a train.

The worst thing that could possibly happen here would be to start a single train service which is bound to fail and due to which a good Hamilton to Auckland service will not be investigated for another 20 years.

Yes, it would be most unfortunate for any such proposal to end up being a repeat of the failure of the Waikato Connection.

[Riggles]

None of these issues apparently matter to the hundreds of people who commute regularly/every day from Palmerston North to Wellington on the Capital Connection. It is the longest successful commuter train service in the country with only one return service daily.

You will find Wellington is in a very differenent boat in comparison to Auckland. Driven into Wellington from Palmy is very long and dangerous were as the rail is fast reliable and safe with pretty much the mahority of employment being in the Wellington CBD not fare from the train station. For going to Auckland however there are a large number of routes that are not really all the bad to drive on and the number of potential work locations are vast. Although you can get to most of them by rail with up to one transfer the Northshore is still out of reach.

[Nick R]

Whats wrong with a transfer to the busway at Britomart? That'll have you in Takapuna in 10 minutes and Albany in 20. But sure the intercity concept doesn't work to well until you have a good metropolitan network at the destination to get around once you are there.

I was pondering the logistics of upgrading the busway to rail, not an easy task. I guess you would do it in stages from town to Albany, with people transferring from bus to rail at the railhead station. Still leaves you with running buses on the motorway or local roads around the section being relayed.

[Riggles]

Whats wrong with a transfer to the busway at Britomart? That'll have you in Takapuna in 10 minutes and Albany in 20. But sure the intercity concept doesn't work to well until you have a good metropolitan network at the destination to get around once you are there.

I was pondering the logistics of upgrading the busway to rail, not an easy task. I guess you would do it in stages from town to Albany, with people transferring from bus to rail at the railhead station. Still leaves you with running buses on the motorway or local roads around the section being relayed.

There is nothing at all wrong with doing a trasfer to a bus. The issue is that your bus is running 5mins late so you miss the one and only train back to Hamilton and so you have to either taxi back to Hamilton for aroun $300 or spend the night in a hotel somewhere. I am all for the Hamilton to Auckland service however I think the suggestion of a single train making one trip each way a day is a joke.

[john-ston]

None of these issues apparently matter to the hundreds of people who commute regularly/every day from Palmerston North to Wellington on the Capital Connection. It is the longest successful commuter train service in the country with only one return service daily.

Actually, you'll find that most of the Capital Connection's load comes from areas closer in to Wellington. Something like half of the Capital Connection's load comes from Waikanae, with another significant proportion boarding at Otaki and Levin. I have heard from somewhere that only about 40 passengers actually come in from Palmerston North.

I am highly sceptical of these claims.

The first major issue is that they seems to assume a 75% uptake on the route. HoweverJust thinking about it yourself, if you are a business man who travels to auckland each day (most likely in a company car) you probably work varrying hours some days long other days short. In which case the train service would be completely usless. I would think a far more realistic uptake rate would be about 1%

I have to admit that I am also somewhat sceptical; the Waikato Connection had roughly 40 passengers a day from Hamilton and Huntly during the period of its operation, and while conditions might have changed since then, I believe that we are heading towards extremely optimistic territory if we claim that 75 return passengers will result with one service running Hamilton -> Huntly -> Pukekohe -> Selection of Stops in Auckland area. What we need to do is the following:

First of all, add a few more stations. Ngaruawahia, Te Kauwhata, Mercer/Pokeno and Tuakau are all reasonable sized towns that if serviced by rail would help boost the passenger loadings. Tuakau and Mercer/Pokeno would especially benefit from the rail service, and could indicate whether or not standard suburban services should be extended from Pukekohe to Tuakau or Mercer/Pokeno as various opportunities arise.

Second of all, like others have said, add more services. My ideal timetable would have seven return services to ensure that the Ferns obtain maximum usage (6:30am, 8:30am, 10:30am, 1:30pm, 3:30pm, 5:30pm, 7:30pm), but even three return services daily would be useful.

Another similar thing is upgradeing the northern busway to rail once it reaches capacity. Like how in the world do you propose to shut down the northern busway that has 1 bus every 2mins so that you can spend two years of construction on the thing only to increase capacity but reduce frequency.

Riggles, if the authorities in Perth could do it, then so can we (a busway to Kwinana was demolished as part of the Mandurah Line works).

[Riggles]

Another similar thing is upgradeing the northern busway to rail once it reaches capacity. Like how in the world do you propose to shut down the northern busway that has 1 bus every 2mins so that you can spend two years of construction on the thing only to increase capacity but reduce frequency.

Riggles, if the authorities in Perth could do it, then so can we (a busway to Kwinana was demolished as part of the Mandurah Line works).

You have to do these things on a case by case basis. At this stage I can't say if that busway even vaigly resembles our one in terms of contraints.

For the Hamilton Auckland line I would think they would be better of trying to estableish a rail network in and around hamilton first, maybe a 30min radius and then once that is off the ground look at sending it up to Auckland. From what I have been told bus usage sky rocketing right now in Hamilton so there seems to be a green revolution going on down there. Maybe it is all a result of the shocking traffic impact assesment that was done on Te Base that has forced everyone onto the bus.

[eurokiwi78]

The Northern Busway was designed to be converted to Light Rail not heavy rail wasnt it?

A lot of the Palmy - Wellington passengers get on at Otaki too. If they miss the only train then they can get a Ganz as far as P'ram and then either a Bus or a Taxi from there. There are also a few buses plying the route and until not that long ago one had the fallback option of the Northerner from Wellington to Palmy if they missed the Capital.

[Riggles]

In terms of track and running speeds light rail and heavy rail are pretty similar to each other. The only real difference is the load rattings which are obviously higher on heavy rail. Trams on the other hand are Trams, and not light rail.

I think I mentioned this before there are parts of the busway that are light rail such as the bridge clearances however there are other things like the 8% grade to constellation and the fact that there are vertical curves in conjunction with horizontal curves that means it is not suitable for any form of rail. From what I have seen out of the designs, the busway is good for rail up to smales farm. Form then on it has no chance on the busway alignment.

[Nick R]

They are suitable for trams, which is indeed a form of rail.

Riggles, why don't you understand that in common use light rail is just a term for a tram running on an off-street route. I know you guys are now working on light metro style EMU's that are also called 'light rail', but the vehicles for the old Fletcher administration light rail project, and the various left overs from that (i.e. the busway, the central transit corridor and the Dominion Rd improvements) were just trams running (mostly) on their own routes.

So yes, the busway was designed to handle light rail! But that doesn't mean a hell of a lot becuase a tram can handle most normal grades and curves anyway.

[keg]

First of all, add a few more stations. Ngaruawahia, Te Kauwhata, Mercer/Pokeno and Tuakau are all reasonable sized towns that if serviced by rail would help boost the passenger loadings. Tuakau and Mercer/Pokeno would especially benefit from the rail service, and could indicate whether or not standard suburban services should be extended from Pukekohe to Tuakau or Mercer/Pokeno as various opportunities arise.

Thought that it would be interesting to put some numbers on the population of potential stops on a Hamilton - Auckland service:

• Ngaruawahia 5106
• Huntly 6834 (Huntly West + Huntly East)
• Te Kauwhata 1191
• Pokeno 1761
• Tuakau 3501

For comparision, populations of towns served by the Capital Connection between Palmy and Paraparaumu (exclusive):

• Shannon 1368
• Levin 15507 (Levin North + Levin West + Playford Park + Levin South + Levin East)
• Otaki 5466
• Waikanae 10233 (Waikanae Beach + Waikanae East + Waikanae Park + Waikanae West)

Figures based on 2006 census area unit data, so a little out of date.

[geoff_184]

Thanks Keg, and that 3500 figure for Tuakau is why trains should be running there. It's only an extra eight minutes for the trains.

If it was worth trialling a long extension to the 2200 populace of Helensville, then a it's worth a short extension to the 3500 populace Tuakau. Just needs a crossover installed and platform constructed.

[eurokiwi78]

Rather than spend money on a crossover at tuakau turn the trains back at mercer where the interlocking exists already and spend that money on a station for pokeno. Mercer is already switched in 24/7 by virtue of being remotely controlled from train control.