Capital Connection Under Threat

[cle]

Be good to maybe hear how full it was?

Could you tell if the passengers were regular, or were there some other ad hoc ones like yourself?

[duddley]

The capitals cleary mean he was excited!

Thats nice, any particular reason that the post had to be written in capitals? And what does this have to do with the subject at hand?

I WENT ON THIS YESTERDAY WITH DXB 5097 as the loco

[DFT7008]

The capitals cleary mean he was excited!

Thats nice, any particular reason that the post had to be written in capitals? And what does this have to do with the subject at hand?

I WENT ON THIS YESTERDAY WITH DXB 5097 as the loco

yea Because I was getting sick of dfts on it Nearly Every time I went on it before

[DFT7008]

Be good to maybe hear how full it was?

Could you tell if the passengers were regular, or were there some other ad hoc ones like yourself?

i do the trip for fun to Waikanae and from Memory it was full in my Coach

[jeepney]

Thats nice, any particular reason that the post had to be written in capitals? And what does this have to do with the subject at hand?

Does it really matter; and isn't the important thing that he used the service thereby ensuring that it's continued operation is safe?

[PBYCatalina]

So....

With the Capital Connection losing $300,000 per year and about to be pulled.
The question has been raised, why should the councils or NZTA put an extra $300,00 into the service?

Any ideas?

[axio]

With the Capital Connection losing $300,000 per year and about to be pulled.

Where was that reported?

[PBYCatalina]

hasnt been reported as far as Im aware.

[kaiwhara]

Citation Required.

.....

hasnt been reported as far as Im aware.

[PBYCatalina]

fair enough... citations should be given...

But hypothetically, lets say the capital connection has been losing money and there was a large sum of additional funding required or else it would be pulled. What would be the argumetns if any for the Councils and NZTA throwing extra cash at the service?

[geoff_184]

Silver Ferns ruled out. It's the existing train, or a bus. I'm still say the whole "threat" is really about KR seeking a subsidy, and the "loss" is likely arrived at through tweaked accounting.

Bums on seats may save train

Manawatu Standard
JIMMY ELLINGHAM
10/03/2012


In a bleak sign for its future, one of the Capital Connection's keenest supporters admits it could be difficult to get more people on the train.

And operator KiwiRail has ruled out offering shuttle services between Palmerston North and Waikanae if the service is derailed.

Palmerston North MP Iain Lees-Galloway made his comment after KiwiRail released the latest passenger stats for the daily Wellington-to-Palmerston North commuter train which first ran in 1991.

The figures showed that between November and February, the average number of passengers catching the service dropped by as much as 380 a week in December 2011 compared with December 2010.

The November comparison showed a drop of 236. Despite a fare increase late last year, the train was still running at a loss, although state-owned enterprise KiwiRail refuses to say what the loss is.

The Capital Connection doesn't get any government subsidies and has faced an uncertain future since Wellington metro services expanded to Waikanae in February last year.

KiwiRail said it was considering closing the service if passenger numbers didn't get back on track or if the service didn't get a subsidy.

"The situation at the moment is we need to see what those numbers are in terms of how many more passengers need to be getting on board," Mr Lees-Galloway said.

"It's going to be very difficult to grow the passenger numbers on the Capital Connection because the service is so limited – you need to be travelling at precisely the times the services going down and back depart. I don't think there's any way of significantly increasing passenger numbers with the Capital Connection in the form it's in at the moment." Mr Lees-Galloway again floated the possibility of a shuttle rail service between Waikanae and Palmerston North – something KiwiRail says is not viable.

Yesterday, its passenger general manager Deborah Hume said it had considered running a railcar service between Palmerston North and Waikanae but "this was even less commercially viable than the Capital Connection".

She said if the train was scrapped, a bus service between Waikanae and Palmerston North, working in with train departures on the Wellington metro service, could be the most cost-efficient option.

After the Capital Connection was effectively put on trial last year, KiwiRail was now in a position to assess the impact of the Waikanae extension. Dr Hume did not say exactly how long KiwiRail would absorb the service's losses, but said if passenger numbers didn't increase over the "coming months", action would need to be taken.

PASSENGER NUMBERS

Capital Connection average weekly passenger numbers
November 2010: 3533 November 2011: 3297
December 2010: 3033 December 2011: 2650
January 2011: 2820 January 2012: 2571
February 2011: 2500 February 2012: 3357

- © Fairfax NZ New

The February 2012 figure looks good to me, unless the paper transposed them?

[john-ston]

Silver Ferns ruled out. It's the existing train, or a bus. I'm still say the whole "threat" is really about KR seeking a subsidy, and the "loss" is likely arrived at through tweaked accounting.

Although the Silver Fern was only analysed as a Waikanae to Palmerston North run. How about as a Palmerston North to Wellington run, as a Levin to Wellington run, or as a Levin to Waikanae run?

The February 2012 figure looks good to me, unless the paper transposed them?

Didn't February 2011 coincide with the extension of services to Waikanae? That might explain the sudden drop then. When you compare February 2012 with November 2011, the figures shown look right.

[Johnny T]

Geoff is right. When done on a variable basis the CC is profitable. It makes a loss depending on how much cost you want to allocate to it.

[axio]

The Silver Ferns would be appropriate for this route, although I guess the feeling is if it is being run with 96 seat railcars then why not run buses which I assume (from the stance taken) are either cheaper to run or more available.

I see that KiwiRail has ruled out shuttle services, but I wonder if this is through lack of a suitable train, as I would imagine the current locomotives can't turn around at (or near) Waikanae.

If we had a train that could turn around at Waikanae then a mix of routings could be used so that WAI commuters could get the benefit of an express service, and the train could get good utilization by not having to go all the way into WLG during the day.

Code: Select all

Proposed PMR/WLG Timetable
    TOL  CCN  CCN  CCN  TOL
PMR      0620 1140 1500 1635
WAI      0730 1250 1610 1700
WLG      0823 .... 1713 1810

WLG 0725 0902 .... 1725 1925
WAI 0825 0950 1255 1818
PMR 0945 1100 1405 1928


TOL = Overlander, CCN = Capital Connection
Times as CCN timetable with WAI/WLG reduced by 2 mins due to loss of PPQ stop.

All WAI arrivals connect within 10 mins to southbound commuter service
All WAI departures connection within 11 mins from northbound commuter service (although the 0814 only starts at Paekakariki)

This timetable provides two WAI-WLG express services each way.
It provides a full working day in WLG as well as shorter windows if connecting services are used from WAI on the middle service.
It provides a good 'business window' from WLG to PMR (once the Overlander is added) e.g. arr PMR 0945 or 1100, dep PMR 1500 or 1635

[axio]

Also..

1. I would get metlink to own/run it, with the service north of Otaki subsidized on a per passenger basis by Horizons Regional Council.
2. I would consider extending some services (mainly the initial start point and final stop) to Feilding.

[geoff_184]

Although the Silver Fern was only analysed as a Waikanae to Palmerston North run. How about as a Palmerston North to Wellington run, as a Levin to Wellington run, or as a Levin to Waikanae run?

Well if PN to Waikanae isn't viable, then PN to Wellington is unlikely to be much better. No point in starting from Levin, as the train will require fueling/servicing in PN and the crews will be based there anyway. It's always been said that the Capital Connection would still be running from PN even if there were no passengers north of Levin.

[matthew25187]

lets say the capital connection has been losing money and there was a large sum of additional funding required or else it would be pulled. What would be the argumetns if any for the Councils and NZTA throwing extra cash at the service?

This sort of thinking brings to mind a rather pertinent quote from Ronald Reagan:
"Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it."

Trying to "save" services by subsidising them without making any other changes rarely brings about improved outcomes. A good example is the Southerner which, despite plenty of warning about poor performance making it unviable, was scheduled for termination after passenger numbers failed to improve to a sustainable level. A six-month Government subsidy to keep it going past this date brought about a brief burst of increased patronage, mainly railfans and the curious taking a "last ride" before it disappeared, before patronage returned to pre-subsidy levels leading to the inevitable closure of the service.

[eurokiwi78]

There is potentially a decent market between Otaki/Levin/Palmerston North and the Capital and indeed I can remember a decent amound of people used to use the train when a better level of service was provided in the past (4 trains a day used to ply the corridor) but that market has been surrendered.

There is already a frequent bus service between Otaki/Levin/Palmerston North and the capital, Looking at the intercity website tells me for a given tuesday services departing Levin for the Capital at 0530, 1045, 1210, 1350, 1510, 1730, 1735 and 1855pm and Nakedbus at 1150, 1555, 1705 and 1910. Fares range from $11 to $22 on the day I used as an example.

One train per day is hardly likely to compete with that (or two if the overlander is included). Of course from Otaki south there is the Metlink service 290 connecting with trains at Waikanae.

I cant see Horizons and GW getting into bed to provide a subsidy somehow.

[tuktuk]

I cant see Horizons and GW getting into bed to provide a subsidy somehow.

Yes that is a shame. GW possibly in response to the overall political climate appears to have a pretty strong focus on controlling costs rather than growing patronage. Despite the spin, the proposed trolley bus rationalisation appears to be exactly an exercise in cost reduction rather than patronage growth.

Coming back to the Capital Connection, I suspect it will be on Horizons' shoulders to stump up the cash. A big effort really should to be made to save this train as it has been a very well supported service.

While the new Waikanae commuter service will have had some effect on the Capital Connection, the overall economic climate in Wellington may be having just as strong an impact. There is a sense of déjà vu with the public service job cuts affecting PT patronage in the same way that they did in the 1990s. However, Wellington's economy offers other opportunities not available in the 1990s to Horowhenua commuters such as the employment access into the movie industry. This should be considered before any far reaching decisions are made for this train.

In Horizon's shoes, I'd consider three key factors in aiming for some cost reduction before handing over any cash to operate the train -
1. Ask some pretty probing questions on the level of track access fee being charged to the Capital Connection. There has been some talk that passenger trains get charged at the same rate at freight trains to use the network. Given the greater wear and tear caused by freight, and the fact that Palmerston North - Waikanae is hardly over-used, is this fair?
2. Ask to be able to engage a third party for an alternative pricing proposal for the hook-and-tow locomotive. I understand that Steam Incorporated have two Das that might just fit the bill. Remember that with the right maintenance, diesel engines can last indefinitely. It is the locomotive chassis frames that determine the life of the locomotive and Steam Incorporated's Das' frames should be in pretty good nick. There has been talk that KR want to release the DX regularly rostered for this service to the South Island so it may actually suit them. There is talk that KR are charging freight rates also for locomotives. Therefore it may well be best for all to release this locomotive for freight use.
3. The cariages themselves are a modern and safe monocoque design which are ideal for this train service. Going back to 56 footers would be unacceptable from a safety point of view. However it may be worth having a discussion with Tranz Scenic to see if they may prefer a third party to take over manning the train.

[geoff_184]

2. Ask to be able to engage a third party for an alternative pricing proposal for the hook-and-tow locomotive. I understand that Steam Incorporated have two Das that might just fit the bill. Remember that with the right maintenance, diesel engines can last indefinitely. It is the locomotive chassis frames that determine the life of the locomotive and Steam Incorporated's Das' frames should be in pretty good nick. There has been talk that KR want to release the DX regularly rostered for this service to the South Island so it may actually suit them. There is talk that KR are charging freight rates also for locomotives. Therefore it may well be best for all to release this locomotive for freight use.

Interesting idea, and I suppose the Plimmerton DJ's might be possibilities as well? The DJ's didn't suffer from excessive frame strain, with their Bo-Bo-Bo arrangement, light weight and short life. 97km/h max speed though, but that'll probably suffice.

I still say KR will be wanting to rid themselves of the CC before DL's take over down there, either by scrapping it or flogging it off to the councils. If it's still operating post-DL introduction, they'll need to allocate a dedicated locomotive (DC or DFT) to the service, and that will make it more expensive for a council to fund, as they'll basically be paying for a locomotive 24/7 instead of a hook & tow operation.