Why Roads Won't Work
The Auckland Business Forum [Herald, Thurday September 16] falls into the trap of defining a solution as the problem when they advocate that we urgently need to "complete the road network." Problems with Auckland transport need to be examined objectively first before a solution can be put forward.
The most significant of these problems is the sheer number of cars registered in the Auckland region - 725,472 to be exact according to the LTSA, or nearly 80% of all vehicles.
Of course this is only an issue if all vehicles take to the road at once, which, unfortunately, is pretty much what happens at peak times in Auckland. Peak period average vehicle occupancy is only about 1.4 people per vehicle, there are no incentives for improvement and many do not have any other option than driving their car.
Compounding congestion in recent years is the phenomenal increase in the number of cars in recent years. Two years ago there were 658,878 registered cars, so on average over 91 cars a day have been added to our roads since.
Mayor Banks points out that cars will double in 20 years. This implies that anything less than doubling the number of roads we have now will result in worse traffic congestion in 2025.
Building enough roads so that we can continue to drive ourselves in solitude at the same time as everyone else just isn't financially, environmentally or even logistically feasible.
In any case, Auckland already has an extensive roading network by OECD standards. A recent ARC survey found that nearly half of all respondents felt that they could get around well by private vehicle, and a further 30% were neutral on the issue.*
An overriding strategic transport problem that is overlooked by roading proponents is our near complete dependence on overseas oil. In the past two years the price of oil has doubled to around $US45 a barrel. This is because oil producing nations have reached the point - just over 80m barrels a day - where they are pumping oil at full capacity to meet rising global demand. China, for example, recently overtook Japan to be the world's second largest consumer of oil behind the United States. For the first eight months of 2004 China's oil imports rose by nearly 40% compared with the same period last year. We need to consider the likely impact on our transport infrastructure if the price of oil doubles again in the next two years, because right now we are vulnerable.
The Auckland Business Forum points out that improved public transport will require an operational subsidy, but they neglect to mention the cost of operating our roading system. All private road users require a vehicle and need to fund maintenance and fuel. Statistics New Zealand tell us that Auckland spends about $140m every month importing vehicles, parts and accessories, and over $85m on fuel **. Since virtually all of this expenditure ends up overseas, Auckland Inc. has to earn a huge amount of foreign currency just to break even on our travel costs. On the other hand, a large proportion of public transport operating expenditure has the potential to remain in New Zealand.
Case studies of roading projects both here and overseas show that roads are simply not as cost effective as one might think, due to what is referred to by transport planners as induced traffic. In a $US200m project, Washington D.C's Interstate 270 was expanded from six to twelve lanes in the early 1990's. Within eight years the highway was again reduced to what one official described as "a rolling parking lot".
Closer to home the induced traffic effect occurred immediately after the construction of the four lane Auckland harbour bridge. Commuters switched from using the ferries to their cars. Housing intensified to the north and within a few years planners had to admit they had hopelessly underestimated the demand, and "clipon" lanes were added to the bridge.
For the Eastern highway, however, one doesn't need to factor in induced traffic to know that it is a bad investment. This is because Auckland City's Eastdor report of 2002 established that the highway had a benefit cost ratio of 1.6, which did not qualify it for Transfund funding which required a ratio of 4.0. Since that time the projected cost of the highway has more than tripled, indicating that the ratio now stands at somewhere less than 1. About the only quantified benefits in the report were a seven minute time saving from Botany Downs to the CBD and a one minute time saving from St Heliers over current trip times.
The net effect of the Eastern highway project has been to divert resources and debate from much more worthy transport projects.
We need to use our network more intelligently than we do currently. Currently the only enforced high occupancy vehicle lane in Auckland is Onewa Road on the North Shore, and it has been a huge success in improving traffic flow. This cost-effective principle needs to be extended to include our motorway system. Enforced high occupancy lanes are a common practice overseas.
We need to continue to work on our public transport network, which still lacks key features such as integrated bus, ferry and train timetables and a single integrated ticket.
We need to invest in electrifying our rail network to reduce our reliance on imported fossil fuels. We need to improve our rail services and connections, including over the little used Eastern rail corridor.
We need to provide alternatives to the private car that are move convenient and less expensive.
We need to make it easier and safer to walk and cycle throughout Auckland.
In summary, 1950's plans for Los Angeles style freeways throughout Auckland should be left in our archives as interesting relics of the way people once thought. We need to adapt our transport planning to the problems of the new millenium.
* July 2004 NRB survey for the ARC, as reported in the Regional Land Transport Committee Agenda, 21 September, p.63