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Peak Oil and Climate Change

As excellent introduction to peak oil and climate change, now in two versions.  Painstakingly reseached and written for all New Zealanders by Sean Millar and Adrienne Puckey.  Download for free.  The latest version has a special introduction for the rail, bus and coach industries.

A Brief Introduction to Climate Change and Peak Oil For New Zealanders

A Brief Introduction to Climate Change and Peak Oil For New Zealanders

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The Green Offramp Project


Why is this section of motorway in central Auckland turning green? Could it be a radical new plan to graze sheep in central Auckland? Or perhaps the beginnings of a new park, right in the heart of Spaghetti junction? A microlight landing strip even?

No! It is, in fact, because it isn't being used. That's because the exisitng Nelson St motorway offramp in central Auckland has been replaced by Transit with a new offramp with exactly the same capacity, origin and destination points as the old one. The only difference is the offramp is now on the the left hand side of the Northern motorway rather than the right. The existing offramp on the right hand-side remains standing, completely unused as it is blocked from traffic. And is hence turning green with moss.

The Business Case?

We are hearing a lot these days from the Government about the need to prove the business case for public transport and rail in particular. Intrigued as to what the cost effectiveness of a green off-ramp project would be, I requested Transit to supply me with:

  1. The cost of construction for the new Nelson Street off-ramp.
  2. The benefit cost ratio for this project, together with supporting calculations.
  3. Any post-implementation review documentation for this project which assesses its cost-effectiveness.
  4. Transit’s forecasts for the future price of petrol over the next 10 years (if any)

Depending on your level of familiarity with how transport projects are funded in this country, the results will either surprise you or confirm your suspicions.

Transit's Response

You can view a copy of Transit's response here, but for those of you with an aversion to unnecessary clicking:

1. The cost of the new off-ramp cannot be supplied accurately as a single contract was tendered for the full CMJ Stage 2 project for $94,760,932. Transit claim the direct costs for the new Nelson St offramp amounts to $3,360,000 - a figure I find very hard to believe considering this is an 8 span bridge in central Auckland.

2. No specific assessment of the Nelson Street offramp was undertaken. The BCR for the entire CMJ project for stages 1 and 2 is claimed to be 4.5. The total cost for this is $200m. The claimed benefits are:

  • Travel time savings: $520m
  • Vehicle operating cost savings: $361m
  • CO2 emission savings: $19m

But future congestion occuring around Spaghetti Junction could well cancel any expected travel time savings. Any vehicle cost savings have been negated by a 20% rise in the cost of petrol. And given that thousands of additional vehicles are registered in Auckland every year, the claimed CO2 emission savings are ridiculous. These figures are witchcraft, not science! Note too that no future disposal cost has been associated with the now disused offramp.

3. From the response it looks as if Nelson Street will not be assessed in any way for its effectiveness.

4. Transit has no regard for the future price of petrol in assessing the necessity of its future transport projects. Petrol prices have risen by over 20% in the last year alone yet are not factored into the future viability of any roading project.

But Why?

Transit aren't the bad guys here. This kind of project is exactly what happens when the Government sets up a transport agency whose main objective is to build and operate the state highway system. It is also why Transit have announced that they intend to build a highway between Onehunga and Penrose, while our campaign to re-open the parallel Onehunga branch railway line struggles to receive any central Government attention whatsoever. Its a shame there isn't the same level of Government support for rail, buses or public transport in our biggest city.

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