The Campaign For Better Transport

The Herald reports that:

Early community consultations are expected on route preferences for a new “road of national significance” costing up to $2 billion between Puhoi and the north of Wellsford.

That follows the Transport Agency’s awarding last week of a contract worth to $12 million for route investigation work on a proposed 38km link, entailing a four-lane extension of the Northern Gateway toll motorway to Warkworth and a dual-carriage expressway beyond that.

The investigation, by engineering and environmental specialists Sinclair Knight Mertz, is expected to take 15 months, but agency acting regional director Tommy Parker said he would be “disappointed if we are not talking about [route] options before about the middle of the year”.

 The Transport Agency fudges the poor economics of the project by saying:

…the figures were calculated by discounting the benefits at a standard 8 per cent each year after the road opens, a rate it sees as more appropriate to short-term projects.

It says if a 4 per cent discount rate could be used to reflect the longevity of the road, the economic returns could rise to $2 for every $1 spent.

I actually feel a bit for the NZTA here, basically being forced to justify a totally uneconomic project to satisfy the whims of the Minister of Transport.

Danielle Williamson’s well informed article on the proposed Puhoi to Wellsford motorway concluded that, mainly for reasons of road safety, the 35km stretch of road should be divided into a “proper motorway”.

However, doing so would be extraordinarily costly and technically challenging. Just the first section alone, between Puhoi and Warkworth, will not be completed for at least nine years, even if it were tolled.

We need to objectively consider the best use of an apparent budget of $2.3bn, rather than adopt an all-or-nothing approach.

For instance, the worst of the accident black spots could be upgraded to a higher standard far sooner than nine years from now. A Warkworth bypass could be built, perhaps to an expressway standard. The rail line to Northland could be repaired so that it is once again capable of carrying freight in a timely manner, reducing the number of large trucks on SH1.

It would be prudent to at least consider these alternatives, especially considering the likelihood of higher petrol prices in the next few years.

It is just galling to read the comments of Transport Minister Steven Joyce on the Puhoi to Wellsford holiday highway in the Herald today:

A report from the Transport Agency released yesterday by Mr Joyce gives estimates of cost for the whole job. These vary from $1.3 billion to $2.04 billion depending on how long it takes.

Mr Joyce said a $10.7 billion commitment to state highways over 10 years meant that funding was not the big issue for the project.

Funding is “not the big issue” even though this dog of a project promises to return 80c for every dollar invested. But the usual refrain of ”economic growth” apparently magically applies to this and all other roading projects, absolving anyone of justifying the cost:

Mr Joyce said the argument was getting lead infrastructure to help stimulate growth.

Quite how a wider holiday highway equates to economic growth is anyone’s guess.  Paying the unemployed to dig a big hole and fill it in again could potentially stimulate more growth than this utter lemon of a project.

And as Josh points out over at  his blog , the bottle neck is really Warkworth, the solution for which is a bypass around it.